President Obama delivers his State of the Union address tonight, and new education initiatives are likely to be featured prominently in the speech. Today’s Washington Post has an article discussing some of the details that have leaked.

Administration officials are saying that the federal education budget may increase by as much as $4 billion or 6.2%. The bulk of the new funding would split between Race to the Top and No Child Left Behind. It is also expected that in addition to the funding increase, President Obama will announce that his administration will be trimming some of the excess fat at the Department of Ed. The Post reports that:

Obama is expected to propose the consolidation of federal education programs. The budget he submits next week will collapse 38 K-12 programs into 11 and eliminate six programs, senior White House aides said.

The next few years could be very exciting for education reformers. The Race to the Top competition has already spurred a number of promising reforms in many states. Choice has been expanded and new data and accountability systems have increased the focus on education outcomes. This new wave of spending could result in even greater gains. As the Post put it:

Obama has signaled that he wants tougher academic standards but more flexibility for schools to reach them. His administration has pushed for innovations such as public charter schools, teacher performance pay and stronger data systems to track student growth from pre-kindergarten all the way to college.

However, my optimism is tempered by the realization that there are large interests arrayed against any real and lasting reform effort.  The teachers unions, in particular, spend a lot of time, effort, and money impeding any real change, and they have proven to be quite skilled at this task.

I hope the administration has the resolve to stick to its reform agenda. New money should be targeted to specific reforms rather than simply spread around existing programs. States and districts should be held accountable for specific education outcomes, but be given the freedom to implement local strategies to meet these goals.

I look forward to tonight’s speech, but will be watching closely over the coming months.  Hopefully this will mark the beginning of real change, and not simply be another well delivered speech full of empty ideas and wishful thinking.